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Infrastructure Again: What Are the Odds?

By: Erin Stackley

In April, the Biden Administration released its much-anticipated infrastructure plan: “The American Jobs Plan.” After years of low grades from the American Society of Civil Engineers, the 2021 report card gives U.S. infrastructure a “C-“ grade, which is actually a large improvement from the previous grade of “D+.” In light of this, there is a real possibility that an infrastructure bill will pass Congress in this term. The American Jobs Plan, touted as both a tool to rebuild the U.S. economy post-COVID-19 and as a way to fix the country’s crumbling infrastructure, is an ambitious, $2 trillion plan, which begs the question: how will we pay for it?

Improvements to infrastructure—which includes the obvious highways, bridges, ports, airports and transit systems, but also broadband, the electric grid, water systems, and more—are good for business. Mass transit and improved roadways lead to higher property values and new developments, which create jobs and spurs on further developments, enhancing the need for commercial real estate, including offices, warehouses, retail, and restaurants. In addition to investing in those traditional infrastructure sectors, the plan calls for building and retrofitting homes and commercial buildings, both to provide affordable housing options and to create new jobs. One way it proposes to do this is by eliminating certain zoning and land use policies that have inhibited new development, including minimum lot size and mandatory parking requirements. It also calls on Congress to invest $52 billion in domestic manufacturers, focusing on supporting rural manufacturing and clean energy, as well as modernizing supply chains and creating new financing programs to support debt and equity investments for manufacturing.



All of this is, of course. positive—in theory. In reality, there are already several obstacles standing in the way of the plan. First and foremost is again: how it will be paid for. With estimates of a cost between $2 and $2.25 trillion, it requires serious funding. Though details are scarce in the plan itself, the main source of funding proposed is a series of tax increases on corporations. These would roll back several of the tax cuts made in 2017 by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including raising the corporate tax from 21% to 28% (which is still lower than the pre-TCJA rate of 35%). Additionally, it targets corporations that move overseas to tax-havens and eliminates the rule allowing U.S. companies to pay no tax on the first 10% of their returns when they locate investments in foreign countries, among other changes to the tax treatment of companies to both collect revenue and encourage keeping jobs in the U.S. Despite those offerings, it is still not clear that it will be enough to pay for the cost of the plan, nor that Congress will approve of all the changes.

In addition, there are process issues. While the White House can announce its wish-list for an infrastructure plan, legislative action from Congress is still required. Even with a Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate, this will still be a challenge; with the narrowest possible majority in the Senate (the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote) and several moderate Democrats that require attention, compromise will be necessary. (Even if they are able to pass this as a Budget Resolution, which requires only a simple majority.) Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has already announced that the American Jobs Plan will require two separate pieces of legislation, doubling that challenge.

That is not to say that infrastructure is a pipe dream though; with millions of Americans unemployed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, infrastructure could be just the thing to get them back to work, boosting the economy in a way that justifies the hefty price tag. And, with bipartisan agreement that the country’s infrastructure needs must be addressed, Congress may just get it across the finish line this time.

 

Media Contact
Alexis Fermanis SIOR Director of Communications
Erin Stackley
Erin Stackley
NAR
estackley@realtors.org

Erin Stackley, Commercial Legislative Policy Representative at the National Association of REALTORS®, monitors and analyzes federal legislative developments affecting the field of commercial real estate, and lobbies the U.S. Congress to make sure that their interests are addressed. Prior to joining NAR, Erin worked for the House of Representatives and had a legal fellowship with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).